Overview

Deloitte projects U.S. holiday e‑commerce sales to land between $305 billion and $310.7 billion, a 7‑9 % jump from the prior year. The overall holiday retail market is expected to reach roughly $1.62 trillion, but its growth will stay under 3.5 %. Amazon sellers should treat the surge as a chance to capture extra revenue while preparing for tighter competition, higher ad costs, and inflation‑driven pricing pressures.

Key Points

• E‑commerce total — Deloitte estimates online holiday sales will top $305 billion and could climb to $310.7 billion, outpacing the broader retail market by a factor of three.
• Overall holiday spend — Total holiday retail is forecast at $1.61‑$1.62 trillion, growing only 2.9‑3.4 % year over year.
• Digital‑vs‑brick‑and‑mortar gap — Online growth rates are projected to be roughly three times faster than in‑store growth, highlighting a structural shift toward digital channels.
• Disposable income boost — Personal disposable income is expected to rise 3.1‑5.4 %, giving shoppers extra purchasing power that historically fuels e‑commerce spikes.
• Advertising cost surge — Cost‑per‑click (CPC) on Amazon is likely to increase 20‑40 % during the holiday peak, pressuring sellers to allocate larger ad budgets to protect ROAS.
• Inflation’s double‑edged effect — Higher average selling prices can lift revenue by 8 % or more, but the same inflation can shrink unit volume, especially in price‑sensitive categories.

What’s Changing

1. Consumer buying power expands — With disposable income up to 5.4 %, a family that previously spent $1,200 on holiday gifts might now have $1,260 to allocate, prompting higher basket values on Amazon.
2. Online share accelerates — If total holiday retail grows 3 % to $1.62 trillion, e‑commerce’s 8 % rise means the digital channel will capture an additional $12‑$13 billion of sales that would have gone to physical stores.
3. Ad spend elasticity tightens — A 30 % rise in CPC combined with an 8 % sales lift forces sellers to boost ad budgets by roughly 35 % just to keep the same return on ad spend, especially for high‑visibility keywords like “gift set” or “smart speaker.”