Overview

Veteran Amazon seller Kevin King saw his brand explode to roughly $40 k in daily sales during early 2023, only to watch more than $1 million evaporate after a series of forecasting errors and Amazon algorithm changes. The episode underscores why even experienced sellers must treat demand planning, inventory stewardship, and platform monitoring as continuous, data‑driven practices.

Key Points

• Revenue high point — The storefront generated about $40,000 each day for a three‑month stretch in Q1 2023, driven by a viral influencer push.
• Total loss — Missteps in stock management and a mid‑year Buy Box rule shift cost the business over $1 million in sales and cash flow.
• Forecasting overreach — Relying on the first month’s numbers led to a 45 % over‑order of the flagship kitchen gadget when demand softened.
• Buy Box volatility — Amazon’s July update to Buy Box eligibility diverted roughly 30 % of traffic to rival listings.
• Storage fee burden — Excess inventory sat in fulfillment centers for 120 days, generating long‑term storage fees that ate about 12 % of profit margins.
• Recovery tactic — Introducing real‑time market signals and dynamic reorder points helped the brand climb back to $15 k in daily sales within two months.

How the Situation Unfolded

1. Launch and rapid scaling — King’s team released a high‑margin kitchen gadget, paired with an influencer campaign that lifted sales to $40 k per day; they projected a six‑month inventory plan based solely on the first month’s performance.
2. Over‑forecasting the next quarter — Assuming the surge would continue, they ordered 150 % of the projected units, ending up with 18 k unsold gadgets when seasonal demand dipped in April.
3. Amazon Buy Box rule change — In July, Amazon shifted Buy Box eligibility to prioritize seller performance metrics (order defect rate, late‑shipment rate) over price. Because King’s account was still coping with delayed shipments, the brand lost the Buy Box on about 70 % of its listings, slashing conversion rates dramatically.